The goal: provide information to voters on prospective Ontario ridings where strategic voting could be applied in the 2025 Ontario provincial election. This election took place on Feb. 27, 2025
Ontario in the 2022 provincial election (Pre-election)
Pre-election information: https://strategic-voting-ontario.ca/strategic-choices-2025-ontario-provincial-election-pre-election-list/
Ontario has three major political parties and one fringe party. Every aspect of each party’s policy could be debated, but for the purpose of promoting strategic voting I summarize the party platforms on a political policy spectrum from right to left as follows:
Progressive Conservatives PCP – Right
Liberals LIB – Centre
New Democratic Party NDP – Left
Green GPO – Left
In the 2022 provincial election the PCP won. The PCP benefited from the split of centre and left voters who supported LIB and NDP candidates in many ridings. In 31 ridings the total votes for LIB + NDP candidates was greater that the votes for the PCP candidate. With 100% strategic voting, these ridings could be LIB or NDP. In addition, in 11 other ridings the sum of LIB + NDP +1,500 votes was greater than the winning PC vote total. Strategic voting plus 1,500 changed votes could have won those ridings.
Ontario votes in 2022 with strategic voting
| Party | 2022 Election seats (actual) | Potential Change with Strategic voting | Potential Outcome with Strategic voting |
| PCP | 85 | -31 | 54 |
| NDP | 31 | +16 | 47 |
| LIB | 8 | +15 | 23 |
If people had voted strategically, the NDP plus LIB could have formed a minority government in 2022. They could together have defeated the PCP government and formed a minority government. There are enough ridings where either strategic voting could have changed the winner or with strategic voting the LIB/NDP were within 1,500 votes of the PC leader.
Why didn’t people vote strategically in 2022? The left/centre voters voted sincerely, for their liked local candidate or the party (NDP or LIB) they wanted to win. But neither the NDP and LIB won, and together they did not get enough seats to form a coalition (minority) government, or force the PCP government out, and thus have had no say in government in Ontario since 2022. The PCP, with a majority was able to implement any political decision they wanted to, unchecked. This lead to unpopular decisions such as the attempt to sell off part of the Greenbelt, for short term gain.
How to vote strategically
The path forward away from another PCP majority is to aim for a LIB + NDP minority government. By strategically selecting a candidate from one of the centre/left parties as the candidate to back, riding by riding a balanced number of riding winners from both the LIB and NDP parties can be achieved. The minority form of government is the best way to protect Ontario citizens from the excesses of one-party rule.
What stands in the way? Information. This site will provide voters with the best* choice for a strategic vote of either the NDP or LIB in each riding currently held by the PCP. where there is a chance to elect an NDP or LIB candidate in 2025, with the goal of a balanced number of seats of each the NDP and LIB parties and a total large enough to form a minority government in Ontario in 2025.
Strategic Choices 2025 Ontario Provincial Election
The list was provided Feb 24, 2025 to provide information to voters on strategic choices. Ridings were indicated as “strategic” where the combination of LIB and NDP votes was greater than the winning PCP votes in the 2022 election.
List includes the following cross-reference data:
- Polling by riding (where available) as of Feb. 24, 2025 presented on the 338 polling site
338Canada Ontario | All 124 districts
- Candidates endorsed on the Unity strategic voting website
Ontario Unity Candidates – Cooperate for Canada
- Candidates endorsed on the Not one Seat (NOS) strategic voting site
Volunteer For Candidates | Not One Seat
Pre-election information: https://strategic-voting-ontario.ca/strategic-choices-2025-ontario-provincial-election-pre-election-list/
Ontario 2025 Provincial Election Outcome (Post-election):
| Party | Seats 2025 |
| PCP | 81 |
| NDP | 27 |
| LIB | 14 |
| GPO | 2 |
Overall, a resounding victory for the PCP.
Out of 43 seats won by centre/left parties, 42 were identified as strategic ridings/candidates on the list provided on this site. It is possible that some strategic voting took place in the 42 ridings.
However, in 1 riding, the “strategic” choice for candidate did not win, and another progressive candidate did win. This illustrates the pitfalls of selection of strategic voting candidates.
Of the 81 ridings won by the PCP, there were 32 ridings where the total of NDP/LIB/GPO votes exceeded the winning vote PCP count. This indicates that strategic voting did not take place.
The continued support for multiple parties in Ontario politics indicates that a representational government system (instead of first past the post) could better represent the majority of voters.
Post-election information: https://strategic-voting-ontario.ca/ontario-2025-provincial-election-outcome/