Strategic Voting in the next Ontario election – Strategic Voting in the next Ontario election

Strategic Voting

What is Strategic Voting ? – defined as voting for other than your preferred candidate in an election.

What is Sincere Voting ? – defined as voting for your preferred candidate in an election

Why vote sincerely ? – there are multiple reasons why you vote for a candidate in an election. You could vote for the person because you would like them to win, or you want the party they represent to win, or you want to support them even though you don’t think they will win, or to support the party they represent even though you don’t expect them to win.

Why vote strategically ? – one of the main reasons is because there are three candidates or three parties with a chance of winning. The votes are split three ways if everyone votes for who they want to. But, you might not prefer the person/party with the most expected votes to win. So strategically you would vote for the second most likely to win (not the third), so that person/party comes out the winner.

In strategic voting, you pick a person to vote for strategically for a desired outcome. You may not like them or their party the best. But you still made a free choice of who to vote for.

Ontario in the 2022 provincial election

Ontario has three major political parties and one fringe party. Every aspect of each party’s policy could be debated, but for the purpose of promoting strategic voting I summarize the party platforms on a political policy spectrum from right to left as follows:

Progressive Conservatives PC – Right

Liberals LIB – Centre

New Democratic Party NDP – Left

Green GPO – Left

In the 2022 provincial election the PC won. The PC benefited from the split of centre and left voters who supported LIB and NDP candidates in many ridings. In 31 ridings the total votes for LIB + NDP candidates was greater that the votes for the PC candidate. With 100% strategic voting, these ridings could be LIB or NDP. In addition, in 11 other ridings the sum of LIB + NDP +1,500 votes was greater than the winning PC vote total. Strategic voting plus 1,500 changed votes could have won those ridings.

Ontario votes in 2022 with strategic voting

Party	2022 Election seats (actual)	Potential Change with Strategic voting	Potential Outcome with Strategic voting
PC	85	-31	54
NDP	31	+16	47
LIB	8	+15	23

If people voted strategically, the NDP plus LIB with more total ridings could have formed a minority government in 2022. They could together have defeated the PC government and formed a minority government. There are enough ridings where either strategic voting could have changed the winner or with strategic voting the LIB/NDP were within 1,500 votes of the PC leader. Strategic voting could result in a change of government in the next election.

Why should you vote strategically?

Why didn’t people vote strategically in 2022? The left/centre voters voted sincerely, for their liked local candidate or the party (NDP or LIB) they wanted to win. But neither the NDP and LIB won, and together they did not get enough seats to form a coalition (minority) government, or force the government out, and thus have had no say in government in Ontario since 2022. The PC, with a majority was able to implement any political decision they wanted to, unchecked. This lead to unpopular decisions such as the attempt to sell off part of the Greenbelt, for short term gain.

How to vote strategically

The path forward away from another PC majority is to aim for a LIB + NDP minority government. By strategically selecting a candidate riding by riding from one of the centre/left parties as the candidate to back, a balanced number of riding winners from both the LIB and NDP parties can be achieved. The minority form of government is the best way to protect Ontario citizens from the excesses of one-party rule.

What stands in the way? Information. This site will provide voters with the best* choice for a strategic vote of either the NDP or LIB in each riding with the goal of a balanced number of seats of each the NDP and LIB parties and a total large enough to form a minority government in Ontario in 2025.

*Best candidate how? These are the rankings used:

ran in last election with higher vote count than other LIB/NDP party candidates
NDP or LIB candidate had higher vote count in 2022
candidate’s win would address a historical inequity
polling indicates party/candidate in lead in a riding

Strategic Choices for 2025

List includes the following cross-reference data:

Polling by riding (where available) as of Feb. 9, 2025 presented on the 338 polling site: 338Canada Ontario | All 124 districts
Candidates where endorsed on the Unity strategic voting website: Ontario Unity Candidates – Cooperate for Canada
Candidates where endorsed on the Not one Seat (NOS) strategic voting site: Volunteer For Candidates | Not One Seat

District	Name	Party	Candidate	Strategic Pick	338 poll Feb 9, 2025	Unity / NOS candidate
1	Ajax	LIB	Rob Cerjanec	Yes	Potential for LIB	Unity
1	Ajax	NDP	Arthur Augustine
2	Algoma—Manitoulin	LIB	Reg Niganobe
2	Algoma—Manitoulin	NDP	David Timeriski	Yes	Potential for NDP
3	Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill	LIB	Jason Cherniak	Yes
3	Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill	NDP	Naila Saeed
4	Barrie—Innisfil	LIB	Dane Lee
4	Barrie—Innisfil	NDP	Andrew Harrigan	Yes
5	Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte	LIB	Rose Zacharias	Yes		Unity
5	Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte	NDP	Tracey Lapham
6	Bay of Quinte	LIB	David O’Neil
6	Bay of Quinte	NDP	Amanda Robertson	Yes
7	Beaches—East York	LIB	Mary-Margaret McMahon	Yes	Potential for LIB	NOS
7	Beaches—East York	NDP	KATE DUPUIS
8	Brampton Centre	LIB	Martin Medeiros
8	Brampton Centre	NDP	Sukhamrit Singh	Yes
9	Brampton East	LIB	Vicky Dhillon
9	Brampton East	NDP	Martin Singh	Yes		Unity
10	Brampton North	LIB	Ranjit Singh Bagga	Yes		Unity
10	Brampton North	NDP	Ruby Zaman
11	Brampton South	LIB	Bhavik Parikh	Yes
11	Brampton South	NDP	Rajani Sharma
12	Brampton West	LIB	Andrew Kania	Yes
12	Brampton West	NDP	Sam Sarjeant
13	Brantford—Brant	LIB	Ron Fox
13	Brantford—Brant	NDP	HARVEY BISCHOF	Yes		Unity
14	Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound	LIB	Selwyn Hicks	Yes
14	Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound	NDP	Jame sHarris
15	Burlington	LIB	Andrea Grebenc	Yes		Unity
15	Burlington	NDP	Megan Beauchemin
16	Cambridge	LIB	Rob Deutschmann
16	Cambridge	NDP	MARJORIE KNIGHT	Yes
17	Carleton	LIB	Brandon Bay	Yes
17	Carleton	NDP	Sherin Faili
18	Chatham-Kent—Leamington	LIB	Bill Kirby
18	Chatham-Kent—Leamington	NDP	Christian Sachs	Yes
19	Davenport	LIB	Paulo Pereira
19	Davenport	NDP	MARIT STILES	Yes	NDP	NOS
20	Don Valley East	LIB	Adil Shamji	Yes	Potential for LIB	NOS
20	Don Valley East	NDP	Frank Chu
21	Don Valley North	LIB	Jonathan Tsao	Yes		NOS
21	Don Valley North	NDP	Ebrahim Astaraki
22	Don Valley West	LIB	Stephanie Bowman	Yes		NOS
22	Don Valley West	NDP	Linnea Lofstrom-Abary
23	Dufferin—Caledon	LIB	Michael Dehn	Yes
23	Dufferin—Caledon	NDP	George Nakitsas
24	Durham	LIB	Brad Jakobsen	Yes
24	Durham	NDP	Chris Borgia
25	Eglinton—Lawrence	LIB	Vince Gasparro	Yes		NOS
25	Eglinton—Lawrence	NDP	Natasha Doyle-Merrick
26	Elgin—Middlesex—London	LIB	Doug Mactavish
26	Elgin—Middlesex—London	NDP	Amanda Zavitz	Yes
27	Essex	LIB	Tamara Stomp
27	Essex	NDP	Rachel Mills	Yes
28	Etobicoke Centre	LIB	John F Campbell	Yes		NOS
28	Etobicoke Centre	NDP	Giulia Volpe
29	Etobicoke—Lakeshore	LIB	Lee Fairclough	Yes		NOS
29	Etobicoke—Lakeshore	NDP	Rozhen Asrani
30	Etobicoke North	LIB	Julie Lutete	Yes		NOS
30	Etobicoke North	NDP	Bryan Blair
31	Flamborough—Glanbrook	LIB	Joshua Bell
31	Flamborough—Glanbrook	NDP	Lilly Noble	Yes
32	Glengarry—Prescott—Russell	LIB	Trevor Stewart	Yes		Unity
32	Glengarry—Prescott—Russell	NDP	Ryder Finlay
33	Guelph	LIB	Mustafa Zuberi
33	Guelph	GPO	Mike Schriener	Yes
33	Guelph	NDP	Cameron Spence
34	Haldimand—Norfolk	LIB	Vandan Patel
34	Haldimand—Norfolk	NDP	Erica Englert	Yes
35	Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock	LIB	Alison Bennie
35	Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock	NDP	Barbara Doyle	Yes
36	Hamilton Centre	LIB	Eileen Walker
36	Hamilton Centre	NDP	Robin Lennox	Yes	NDP
37	Hamilton East—Stoney Creek	LIB	Heino Doessing
37	Hamilton East—Stoney Creek	NDP	Zaigham Butt	Yes
38	Hamilton Mountain	LIB	Dawn Danko
38	Hamilton Mountain	NDP	Kojo Damptey	Yes	Potential NDP	Unity
39	Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas	LIB	Julia Brown
39	Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas	NDP	SANDY SHAW	Yes		Unity
40	Hastings—Lennox and Addington	LIB	Lynn Rigby
40	Hastings—Lennox and Addington	NDP	Jessica Zielke	Yes
41	Humber River—Black Creek	LIB	Liban Hassan
41	Humber River—Black Creek	NDP	TOM RAKOCEVIC	Yes		NOS
42	Huron—Bruce	LIB	Ian Burbidge	Yes
42	Huron—Bruce	NDP
43	Kanata—Carleton	LIB	Karen McCrimmon
43	Kanata—Carleton	NDP	Dave Belcher	Yes
44	Kenora—Rainy River	LIB	Anthony Leek
44	Kenora—Rainy River	NDP	Rudy Turtle	Yes
45	King—Vaughan	LIB	Gillian Vivona	Yes
45	King—Vaughan	NDP	Rick Morelli
46	Kingston and the Islands	LIB	Ted Hsu	Yes	Potential LIB	Unity
46	Kingston and the Islands	NDP	Elliot Goodell Ugalde
47	Kitchener Centre	LIB	Colleen James
47	Kitchener Centre	GPO	Aislinn Clancy		Potential GPO
47	Kitchener Centre	NDP	Brooklin Wallis	Yes
48	Kitchener—Conestoga	LIB	Joe Gowing
48	Kitchener—Conestoga	NDP	Jodi Szimanski	Yes		Unity
49	Kitchener South—Hespeler	LIB	Ismail Mohamed
49	Kitchener South—Hespeler	NDP	Jeff Donkersgoed	Yes		Unity
50	Lambton—Kent—Middlesex	LIB	Cathy Burghardt-Jesson
50	Lambton—Kent—Middlesex	NDP	Kathryn Shailer	Yes
51	Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston	LIB	Rob Rainer
51	Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston	NDP	John MacRae	Yes
52	Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes	LIB	Lorna Jean Edmonds	Yes
52	Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes	NDP	Chris Wilson
53	London—Fanshawe	LIB	Kevin May
53	London—Fanshawe	NDP	TERESA ARMSTRONG	Yes	Potential NDP	Unity
54	London North Centre	LIB	Tariq Khan
54	London North Centre	NDP	Terence Kernaghan	Yes	Potential NDP
55	London West	LIB	Bakar Khan
55	London West	NDP	PEGGY SATTLER	Yes	Potential NDP	Unity
56	Markham—Stouffville	LIB	Kelly Dunn	Yes		Unity
56	Markham—Stouffville	NDP	Gregory Hines
57	Markham—Thornhill	LIB	Nirmala Armstrong	Yes		Unity
57	Markham—Thornhill	NDP	Paul Sahbaz
58	Markham—Unionville	LIB	Jagbir Dosanjh	Yes
58	Markham—Unionville	NDP	Sameer Qureshi
59	Milton	LIB	Kristina Tesser Derksen	Yes		Unity
59	Milton	NDP	Katherine Cirlincione
60	Mississauga Centre	LIB	Sumira Malik	Yes		Unity
60	Mississauga Centre	NDP	Waseem Ahmed
61	Mississauga East—Cooksville	LIB	Bonnie Crombie	Yes	Potential LIB	Unity
61	Mississauga East—Cooksville	NDP	Alex Venuto
62	Mississauga—Erin Mills	LIB	Qasir Dar	Yes	Potential LIB	Unity
62	Mississauga—Erin Mills	NDP	Mubashir Rizvi
63	Mississauga—Lakeshore	LIB	Elizabeth Mendes	Yes		Unity
63	Mississauga—Lakeshore	NDP	Spencer Ki
64	Mississauga—Malton	LIB	Jawad Haroon	Yes		Unity
64	Mississauga—Malton	NDP	Gerald McDonald
65	Mississauga—Streetsville	LIB	Jill Promoli	Yes		Unity
65	Mississauga—Streetsville	NDP	Shoaib Khawar
66	Nepean	LIB	Tyler Watt	Yes		unity
66	Nepean	NDP	Max Blair
67	Newmarket—Aurora	LIB	Chris Ballard	Yes		Unity
67	Newmarket—Aurora	NDP	Dennis Heng
68	Niagara Centre	LIB	Damien O’Brien
68	Niagara Centre	NDP	JEFF BURCH	Yes	Potential NDP
69	Niagara Falls	LIB	Shafoli Kapur
69	Niagara Falls	NDP	WAYNE GATES	Yes	Potential NDP	Unity
70	Niagara West	LIB	Shauna Boyle
70	Niagara West	NDP	DAVE AUGUSTYN	Yes
71	Nickel Belt	LIB	Natalie Labbee
71	Nickel Belt	NDP	FRANCE GÉLINAS	Yes	Potential NDP	Unity
72	Nipissing	LIB	Liam McGarry
72	Nipissing	NDP	Loren Mick	Yes
73	Northumberland—Peterborough South	LIB	Dorothy Noronha	Yes
73	Northumberland—Peterborough South	NDP	Bruce LePage
74	Oakville	LIB	Alison Gohel	Yes		Unity
74	Oakville	NDP	Diane Downey
75	Oakville North—Burlington	LIB	Kaniz Mouli	Yes		Unity
75	Oakville North—Burlington	NDP	Caleb Smolenaars
76	Orléans	LIB	Stephen Blais	Yes	Potential LIB	Unity
76	Orléans	NDP
77	Oshawa	LIB	Viresh Bansal
77	Oshawa	NDP	JENNIFER FRENCH	Yes	Potential NDP	Unity
78	Ottawa Centre	LIB	Thomas Simpson
78	Ottawa Centre	NDP	Catherine McKenney	Yes	Potential NDP	Unity
79	Ottawa South	LIB	John Fraser	Yes	Potential LIB
79	Ottawa South	NDP	Morgan Gay
80	Ottawa—Vanier	LIB	Lucille Collard	Yes	Potential LIB
80	Ottawa—Vanier	NDP	Myriam Djilane
81	Ottawa West—Nepean	LIB	Brett Szmul
81	Ottawa West—Nepean	NDP	CHANDRA PASMA	Yes	Potential NDP	Unity
82	Oxford	LIB	Bernia Martin
82	Oxford	NDP	Khadijah Haliru	Yes
83	Parkdale—High Park	LIB	Nadia Guerrera
83	Parkdale—High Park	NDP	Alexa Gilmour	Yes	Potential NDP	NOS
84	Parry Sound—Muskoka	LIB	David Innes
84	Parry Sound—Muskoka	GPO	Matt Richter
84	Parry Sound—Muskoka	NDP	Jim Ronholm	Yes
85	Perth—Wellington	LIB	Ashley Fox
85	Perth—Wellington	NDP	Jason Davis	Yes
86	Peterborough—Kawartha	LIB	Adam Hopkins	Yes		Unity
86	Peterborough—Kawartha	NDP	Jen Deck
87	Pickering—Uxbridge	LIB	Ibrahim Daniyal	Yes		Unity
87	Pickering—Uxbridge	NDP	Khalid Ahmed
88	Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke	LIB	Oliver Jacob
88	Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke	NDP	Marshall Buchanan	Yes
89	Richmond Hill	LIB	Roozbeh Farhadi	Yes
89	Richmond Hill	NDP	Naila Saeed
90	St. Catharines	LIB	Robin McPherson
90	St. Catharines	NDP	JENNIE STEVENS	Yes	Potential NDP	Unity
91	Sarnia—Lambton	LIB	Rachel Willsie
91	Sarnia—Lambton	NDP	Candace Young	Yes
92	Sault Ste. Marie	LIB	Gurwinder Dusanjh
92	Sault Ste. Marie	NDP	Lisa Vezeau Allen	Yes
93	Scarborough—Agincourt	LIB	Peter Yuen	Yes		NOS
93	Scarborough—Agincourt	NDP	Francesca Policarpio
94	Scarborough Centre	LIB	MAZHAR SHAFIQ	Yes		NOS
94	Scarborough Centre	NDP	Sonali Chakraborti
95	Scarborough—Guildwood	LIB	Andrea Hazell	Yes	Potential LIB	NOS
95	Scarborough—Guildwood	NDP	Christian Keay
96	Scarborough North	LIB	Anita Anandarajan	Yes
96	Scarborough North	NDP	Thadsha Navaneethan
97	Scarborough—Rouge Park	LIB	Morris Beckford	Yes		NOS
97	Scarborough—Rouge Park	NDP	Hibah Sidat
98	Scarborough Southwest	LIB	Qadira Jackson
98	Scarborough Southwest	NDP	Doly Begum	Yes	Potential NDP	NOS
99	Simcoe—Grey	LIB	Ted Crysler	Yes
99	Simcoe—Grey	NDP	Benten Tinkler
100	Simcoe North	LIB	Walter Alvarez-Bardales
100	Simcoe North	NDP	Jordi Malcolm	Yes
101	Spadina—Fort York	LIB	April Engelberg
101	Spadina—Fort York	NDP	CHRIS GLOVER	Yes	Potential NDP	NOS
102	Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry	LIB	Devon Monkhouse	Yes
102	Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry	NDP	Jeremy Rose
103	Sudbury	LIB	Rashid Mukhtar Choudhry
103	Sudbury	NDP	JAMIE WEST	Yes	Potential NDP	Unity
104	Thornhill	LIB	Benjamin Dooley	Yes
104	Thornhill	NDP	Faiz Qureshi
105	Thunder Bay—Atikokan	LIB	Stephen Margarit
105	Thunder Bay—Atikokan	NDP	Judith Monteith-Farrell	Yes
106	Thunder Bay—Superior North	LIB	Brian Hamilton
106	Thunder Bay—Superior North	NDP	LISE VAUGEOIS	Yes	Potential NDP	Unity
107	Timiskaming—Cochrane	LIB	Rick Ellsmere
107	Timiskaming—Cochrane	NDP	JOHN VANTHOF	Yes	Potential NDP	Unity
108	Timmins	LIB	Domenic Casto
108	Timmins	NDP	Corey Lepage	Yes
109	Toronto Centre	LIB	Holly Rasky
109	Toronto Centre	NDP	KRISTYN WONG-TAM	Yes	Potential NDP	NOS
110	Toronto—Danforth	LIB	Connor Taras
110	Toronto—Danforth	NDP	Peter Tabuns	Yes	Potential NDP	NOS
111	Toronto—St. Paul’s	LIB	Stephanie Smyth	Yes
111	Toronto—St. Paul’s	NDP	Jill Andrew		Potential NDP	NOS
112	University—Rosedale	LIB	Pamela Jeffery
112	University—Rosedale	NDP	JESSICA BELL	Yes	Potential NDP	NOS
113	Vaughan—Woodbridge	LIB	Hamza Ansari	Yes
113	Vaughan—Woodbridge	NDP	Rlif Genc
114	Waterloo	LIB	Clayton Moore
114	Waterloo	NDP	CATHERINE FIFE	Yes	Potential NDP	Unity
115	Wellington—Halton Hills	LIB	Alex Hilson
115	Wellington—Halton Hills	NDP	Simone Kent	Yes
116	Whitby	LIB	Roger Gordon
116	Whitby	NDP	Jamie Nye	Yes
117	Willowdale	LIB	Paul Saguil	Yes		NOS
117	Willowdale	NDP	Boris Ivanov
118	Windsor—Tecumseh	LIB	Connor Logan
118	Windsor—Tecumseh	NDP	GEMMA GREY-HALL	Yes
119	Windsor West	LIB	Moe Chehab
119	Windsor West	NDP	LISA GRETZKY	Yes	Potential NDP	Unity
120	York Centre	LIB	Sam Nestico	Yes		NOS
120	York Centre	NDP	Natalie Van Harteren
121	York—Simcoe	LIB	Fatima Chaudhry	Yes
121	York—Simcoe	NDP
122	York South—Weston	LIB	Daniel Di Giorgio
122	York South—Weston	NDP	FAISAL HASSAN	Yes		NOS
123	Kiiwetinoong	LIB	Manuela Michelizzi
123	Kiiwetinoong	NDP	SOL MAMAKWA	Yes		Unity
124	Mushkegowuk—James Bay	LIB	Kyle Allen
124	Mushkegowuk—James Bay	NDP	GUY BOURGOUIN	Yes	Potential NDP	Unity