Ontario in the 2025 Federal Election
What is Strategic Voting ? – defined as voting for other than your preferred candidate in an election.
These are the strategic candidates for 2025
Why vote strategically ? – one of the main reasons is because there are three or more candidates or parties with a chance of winning. The votes are split if everyone votes for who they want to. But, you might not prefer the person/party with the most expected votes to win. So strategically you would vote for the second most likely to win (not the third), so that person/party comes out the winner.
In strategic voting, you pick a person to vote for strategically for a desired outcome. You may not like them or their party the best. But you still made a free choice of who to vote for.
Canada in the 2021 Federal Election
Canada has five major political parties. Every aspect of each party’s policy could be debated, but for the purpose of promoting strategic voting I summarize the party platforms on a political policy spectrum from right to left as follows:
- Progressive Conservatives PC – Right
- Liberals LIB – Centre
- Bloc Quebecois BQ – Centre
- New Democratic Party NDP – Left
- Green Party GRN – Left
Canada’s 2021 Federal Election Results
Source: Canadian Election Results: 2021
In the 2021 federal election the Liberals were the leading party by seats but failed to win a “majority” of seats. In order to govern the Liberals and NDP entered into a “supply and confidence agreement” where the NDP would agree to support the Liberal government in exchange for the implementation of certain policies. The policies included:
- Ban the use of replacement workers at federally regulated workplaces
- 10 days annual sick-leave at all federally regulated workplaces
- Sustainable Jobs act, to support the creation of sustainable jobs in a net-zero economy
- Establish a roundtable to implement the recommendations of the National Inquiry into Missing and Murdered Indigenous Women and Girls
- National Dental Care Program
- National Pharmacare program (status in process)
- Legislation for national long-term care standards (not introduced yet)
All of these worthy actions were the direct result of a form of minority government of the combined Liberal and NDP parties Link to CBC News
Coalition Government for Canada
The current first-past-the-post structure of Canada’s electoral system sets the major political parties against each other, and Canada’s citizens are the losers. A system that encourages multi-party cooperation is possible and has been tried in other nations (Link to The Conversation). The citizens of Canada need to use the resources available to them to make decisions in their best interests. The use of Strategic Voting is a tool to direct the outcomes of elections. Why not vote for coalitions?
New Zealand switched to a Mixed Member proportional system in 1996 (the same as used in Germany), and since then each successive government has successfully passed a budget (Link to The Conversation).
Changing the structure of Canada’s electoral system will take time and political will, however, the voter does not have to wait! Embrace Strategic Voting and send the message that outcomes are more important than political parties to Canadians.
Ontario results in the 2021 election
Of the 37 seats won by the Conservatives in Ontario in 2021, 16 of them were won because the centre/left vote was split. In each of these ridings Strategic Voting could have resulted in a win for the Liberals, NDP or Green parties. These ridings are the focus for Strategic Voting in the 2025 election.
2021 Election results, Conservative wins in 16 selected Ontario ridings
Source: 44th General Election – September 20, 2021 – Elections Canada
The details of voting for the 16 strategic ridings in 2021 are here: 2021
Why should you vote strategically in 2025?
The decisions that politicians will make on our behalf in the next 5 years are of critical importance. Don’t waste your vote!
How to vote strategically:
The path forward is to aim for some combination of LIB – NDP – GRN – BQ minority government for Canada. By strategically selecting a candidate in the 16 Ontario ridings where centre/left combined votes exceeded conservative votes as the candidate to back, winners from centre/left parties can be achieved in these ridings. The minority form of government is the best way to protect Canadian citizens from the excesses of one-party rule.
What stands in the way? Information. This site will provide voters with the best* choice for a strategic vote in each of the 16 strategic ridings in Ontario with the goal of for centre/left parties and a total large enough to form a minority government in Canada in 2025. The strategic candidates list will be available when there are declared candidates in the ridings.
*Best candidate how? These are the rankings used:
- ran in last election with higher vote count than other centre/left party candidates
- Party candidate had higher vote count in 2021
- candidate’s win would address a historical inequity
- polling indicates party/candidate in lead in a riding
Strategic Choices for 2025
List of strategic candidates will include cross-reference polling data where available